The CDC reported 672,502 divorces and annulments in 2023, at a rate of 2.4 per 1,000 population. The breakup statistics for marriage in the country are coming from 45 states, including the capital city. These figures exclude data from California, Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Mexico, and therefore the actual numbers are surely even higher.
What percentage of marriages end in divorce? In the U.S., nearly 40% of all planned first marriages wind up in a divorce. Recently revised forecast figures show that the rate was between 40 and 42%. This number rises with age of marriage, level of education, and income.
Let’s account for the factors that contribute to the instances of divorce and understand the implications of the associated statistics.
What Does the Current Data Actually Show?
By 2023, Pew Research Center released a report with the numbers showing that 1 in 3 Americans who enter marriage have previously divorced. This figure should not be taken as absolute since the above percentage includes both people currently in marriage and those who will marry in the future.
As of 2023, 42% of those who were married in the sixties and seventies were no longer together, while couples from the 70s and 80s saw rates of 47% and 46%.
For those who got married from the 1990s to the present, the statistics are still relatively healthy for most people but this may go up.
Another parameter that demographers follow is the refined divorce rate that divides the number of divorces through the married women of 15 years and older and multiplies by 1000. According to the Pew Research Center, the maximum divorce rate in 1980 was 22.6 compared to the 14.4 rate by 2023. The decline has moved slowly through 2008, dropped faster after that, and divorce among adults 50 and older ran the opposite way for much of that stretch.
Why the Fifty Percent Myth Won’t Die
The figure of 50% came from an analysis of studies carried out in the 70s and 80s. Soon after, no-fault divorce laws were enacted and cases increased in number.
Projections were made based on this surge and forecasted that 50% of marriages would eventually end in divorce.
Another reason for the confusion stems from mixing various statistics. Crude divorce rates compare divorces to the number of individuals in the population for every thousand people, while the refined divorce rate compares divorces against the number of married individuals for every thousand.
None of them can accurately answer what percentage of marriages end in divorce. The combination of all three, without distinguishing between them, is how many headlines about divorce have been written.
Does the Divorce Rate Look the Same Everywhere?
Divorce rates vary widely by state. New York and California both run on a six-month clock, but the clock measures different things. According to section 170 (7) of New York Domestic Relations Law, a spouse declares under oath in the court of law that the marriage has proven to be irremediably broken for at least six months before such a petition is brought. On the other hand, the California direction is enacted in the Family Code 2339, which states that there shall be a waiting period of six months from the date of service of notice to the responding party before any judgment can legally be issued.
The varying rates shown above only serve to show the importance of collaborating with a legal professional. According to Rochester family lawyer Jonathan C. Trotto, every case is unique and requires a tailored approach. Lawyers should treat every client’s legal matter as unique. One can have a better understanding of their legal needs, goals, concerns, and desired outcomes when they have a lawyer by their side.
What This Means If You’re Weighing Your Own Decision
No matter how many numbers there are, none can predict what will happen in an individual marriage. Statistics are based on general populations, not individuals, and the declining divorce rate for the nation is no prediction for any specific relationship.
What these statistics do help to provide is context. These statistics do not support the idea that a coin toss determines the success of marriage, and neither does one’s generation or location change the fact that the future of each marriage rests entirely upon the two individuals involved.
When it comes to dealing with separation or divorce, the statistics become a secondary concern.
Whether you’re trying to understand your rights before filing or you’re already in the middle of a divorce, working with an attorney who knows your state’s procedures can make the process considerably less confusing.
Top Photo: Image Credit